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A Comparison of Approaches to Mitigate Hypothetical Bias AgEcon
Champ, Patricia A.; Moore, Rebecca; Bishop, Richard C..
We compare two approaches to mitigating hypothetical bias. The study design includes three treatments: an actual payment treatment, a contingent valuation (CV) treatment with a follow-up certainty question, and a CV treatment with a cheap talk script. Our results suggest that both the follow-up certainty treatment and the cheap talk treatment produce willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates consistent with the actual payment treatment. However, the follow-up certainty treatment provides response distributions at all offer amounts that are statistically similar to the actual payment treatment, while the cheap talk treatment provides similar responses only at some offer amounts. Furthermore, the cheap talk treatment is effective only for inexperienced individuals....
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Contingent valuation; Hypothetical bias; Follow-up certainty; Cheap talk; Nonmarket valuation; Environmental Economics and Policy; Public Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55867
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A Comparison Of Choice Experiments And Actual Grocery Store Behavior: An Empirical Application To Seafood Products AgEcon
Hudson, Darren; Gallardo, Rosa Karina; Hanson, Terrill R..
In this paper we compare results from an in-store field experiment and a mail survey choice experiment (CE) to investigate CE’s capacity in predicting grocery store market share. For the comparison, we used three seafood products: freshwater prawns, marine shrimp, and lobster. CE estimates were obtained via four econometric models: the conditional logit, the random parameter logit, the heteroskedastic extreme value, and the multinomial probit. We found that the level of control in the grocery store experiment and the choice of econometric model influenced the capacity of CE to predict grocery store market shares.
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Choice experiment; Grocery store; Hypothetical bias; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Marketing; C35; Q13.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120453
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An Improved Method for Calibrating Purchase Intentions in Stated Preference Demand Models AgEcon
Davies, Stephen P.; Loomis, John B..
The Orbit demand model allows the magnitude of the calibration to stated purchase intentions to vary based on the magnitude of the stated quantities. Using an empirical example of stated trips, we find that the extent of calibration varies substantially with less correction needed at small stated trips (–25%) but larger corrections at higher quantities of stated visits (–48%). We extend the Orbit model to calculate consumer surplus per stated trip of $26. Combining the calibrations in stated trips and value per trip, the Orbit model provides estimates of annual benefits from 60% to 111% less than the count data model.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Hypothetical bias; Orbit; Ordered probit model; Travel cost model; Recreation; Stated preference; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Financial Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Marketing; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; D12; H44; Q26; Q51.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100521
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Are Consumers in Developing Countries Willing-to-Pay More for Micronutrient-Dense Biofortified Foods? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Uganda AgEcon
Chowdhury, Shyamal K.; Meenakshi, J.V.; Tomlins, Keith; Owori, Constance.
Vitamin A deficiency is a major health problem in Africa and in many other developing countries. Biofortified staple crops that are high in pro vitamins A and adapted to local growing environment have the potential to reduce the prevalence of vitamin A deficiency. One such example is the orange-fleshed sweetpotato. However because of its distinctive orange color, which is in contrast to the white varieties that are typically consumed in Africa, it is important to assess whether consumers will accept it. It is this question that this paper attempts to address, using a choice experiment with the real product to quantify the magnitude of the premium or discount in consumers’ willingness to pay that may be associated with it. In addition, it also considers...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Cheap talk; Field experiments; Hypothetical bias; Conjoint analysis; Universal logit; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; C35; C93; D 83; Q18.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49945
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Can Calibration Reconcile Stated and Observed Preferences? AgEcon
Norwood, F. Bailey.
Hypothetical bias is a pervasive problem in stated-preference experiments. Recent research has developed two empirically successful calibrations to remove hypothetical bias, though the calibrations have not been tested using the same data or in a conjoint analysis. This study compares the two calibrations in a conjoint analysis involving donations to a public good. Results find the calibrations are biased predictors of true donations but that calibrated and uncalibrated models together provide upper and lower bounds to true donations.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Calibration; Experimental economics; Forecasting; Hypothetical bias; Public goods; Stated preference; Voluntary contributions; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Q51; H41.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43735
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Cognitive Dissonance as a Means of Reducing Hypothetical Bias AgEcon
Alfnes, Frode; Yue, Chengyan; Jensen, Helen H..
Hypothetical bias is a persistent problem in stated preference studies. We propose and test a method for reducing hypothetical bias based on the cognitive dissonance literature in social psychology. A central element of this literature is that people prefer not to take inconsistent stands and will change their attitudes and behavior to make them consistent. We find that participants in a stated preference willingness-to-pay study, when told that a nonhypothetical study of similar goods would follow, state significantly lower willingness to pay than participants not so informed. In other words, participants adjust their stated willingness to pay to avoid cognitive dissonance from taking inconsistent stands on their willingness to pay for the good being...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Apples; Cognitive consistency; Hypothetical bias; Instrument calibration; Willingness to pay.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47737
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Estimating Hypothetical Bias in Economically Emergent Africa: A Generic Public Good Experiment AgEcon
Caplan, Arthur J.; Aadland, David; Macharia, Anthony.
This paper reports results from a contingent valuation based public good experiment conducted in the African nation of Botswana. In a sample of university students, we find evidence that stated willingness to contribute to a public good in a hypothetical setting is higher than actual contribution levels. However, results from regression analysis suggest that this is true only in the second round of the experiment, when participants making actual contributions have learned to significantly lower their contribution levels. As globalization expands markets, and economies such as Botswana’s continue to modernize, there is a growing need to understand how hypothetical bias will influence the valuation of public goods.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Hypothetical bias; Public good; Willingness to pay; Botswana; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90836
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IS CHEAP TALK EFFECTIVE AT ELIMINATING HYPOTHETICAL BIAS IN A PROVISION AgEcon
Murphy, James J.; Stevens, Thomas H.; Weatherhead, Darryl.
Replaced with revised version of paper 10/06/04.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Contingent valuation; Experiments; Hypothetical bias; Voluntary; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C9; Q26; H41.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14510
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Measuring Willingness to Accept for GM Food by Characteristics AgEcon
Tae-Kyun, Kim; Hyun-Ji, Lee; Na-Kyoung, Hong.
Korean consumers' willingness to accept (WTA) for GM food are studied in this paper. This study compares hypothetical and nonhypothetical responses to choice experiment questions. We test for hypothetical bias in a choice experiment involving GM rice with differing characteristic attributes and multinomial logit model is applied to predict the estimated results. In general, hypothetical responses predicted higher probabilities of purchasing GM rice than nonhypothetical responses. Thus, hypothetical choices overestimate willingness to accept for GM rice. The results of this paper could contributes to government's GM food policies and subsequent studies, also improving economic welfare of farmers and consumers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: GM Food; Willingness to Accept; Choice experiment; Hypothetical bias; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103629
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None-of-These Bias in Stated Choice Experiments AgEcon
Alfnes, Frode; Steine, Gro.
We conduct a within-sample test of hypothetical bias and parameter equality between a hypothetical stated choice (SC) experiment using pictures and a real choice (RC) experiments using products. With exception of the none-of-these alternative-specific dummy, we cannot reject parameter equality between the two datasets. However, when we estimate the models separately with no parameter restrictions, the SC experiment gave WTP estimates that were approximately 50 percent higher and marginal WTP estimates that were almost two times as high as the corresponding estimates from the RC experiment. However, even though the monetary value of the WTP disparity was large, the disparity between the WTP estimates from the two data sets was not statistically significant.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Choice experiment; Hypothetical bias; Color; Mixed logit; Salmon; Willingness to pay; Consumer/Household Economics; C81; C93; D12; Q22.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24761
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On the use of honesty priming task to mitigate hypothetical bias in choice AgEcon
de Magistris, Tiziana; Gracia, Azucena; Nayga, Rodolfo M., Jr..
We test whether the use of an honesty priming task from the social psychology literature can help mitigate hypothetical bias in stated preference choice experiments (CE). Using a between-sample design, we conducted experiments with five treatments: (1) hypothetical CE without cognitive task, (2) hypothetical CE with cheap talk script, (3) hypothetical CE with neutral priming task, (4) hypothetical CE with honesty priming task, and (5) non-hypothetical CE. Results generally suggest that marginal willingness to pay estimates from treatment 4 where subjects are given honesty priming task before the choice experiment are not statistically different from marginal valuations from treatment 5 where subjects are in a non-hypothetical choice experiment. Values from...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Hypothetical bias; Cheap talk; Priming; Willingness-to-pay; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C23; D12; Q18.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123639
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'Pocket and Pot': Hypothetical Bias in a No-Free-Riding Public Contribution Game AgEcon
Gubanova, Tatiana; Adamowicz, Wiktor L.; McMillan, Melville.
Hypothetical bias arises when values which people say they place on a good or service differ systematically from the values people reveal for the same good or service through actual, binding economic transactions. Studies of hypothetical bias with respect to public goods often use charitable contributions or other relatively unique goods and these studies employ a variety of mechanisms to elicit the stated and revealed values. This study proposes the inclusion of a free-rider barring random dictatorship mechanism in the standard public contribution game to investigate the issue of bias when a public good involves immediate monetary returns to subjects. Steps are taken to make the game have the look and feel of a real world trade-off between private...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Hypothetical bias; Public contribution game; Random dictatorship; Environmental Economics and Policy; C72; C91; D80.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91403
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Revisiting Cheap Talk with New Evidence from a Field Experiment AgEcon
Silva, Andres; Nayga, Rodolfo M., Jr.; Campbell, Benjamin L.; Park, John L..
We assess the reduction of hypothetical bias in consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for products by applying a generic, short, and neutral cheap talk script in a retail setting. Using an open-ended elicitation mechanism with non-hypothetical, hypothetical, and hypothetical with cheap talk treatments, our results indicate that the hypothetical WTP values are higher than the nonhypothetical values, but the hypothetical with cheap talk values are not significantly different from non-hypothetical estimates.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: BDM; Cheap talk; Field experiment; Hypothetical bias; Willingness-to-pay; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117168
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THE ROLE OF PRODUCTION METHODS IN FRUIT PURCHASING BEHAVIOUR: HYPOTHETICAL VS ACTUAL CONSUMERS’ PREFERENCES AND STATED MINIMUM REQUIREMENTS AgEcon
Moser, Riccarda; Raffaelli, Roberta; Notaro, Sandra.
In recent years, concerns for potential risks on human health related to the overuse of chemical pesticides have encouraged research of alternatives production methods as integrated pest management (IPM) and organic agriculture. Consumer preferences for these practices or for new product characteristics often have been evaluated using stated preference techniques such as Choice Experiment (CE). Nevertheless, it has been found that in these surveys respondents generally report higher hypothetical than real willingness to pay, providing the existence of the so-called “hypothetical bias”. While the presence of this bias has been widely reported in Contingent Valuation, its investigation in CE is still at the beginning. Moreover, in most of the cases, the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Fruit purchasing behaviour; Production methods; Mitigation practices; Hypothetical bias; Real choice experiment; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; C35; Q18; D12; C93.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116426
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